Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:00 PM UTC

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$368

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-3.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.6%

½ Kelly1.8%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $368 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1423722