ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31?
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Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31?

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

97%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$377K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

97% / 98%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

97%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31?" at 97% YES / 3% NO. In the last 24 hours, $377K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 97%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 97%, NO 3%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1499148

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Portugal: 97%, Croatia: 18%, DR Congo: 0%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 97%99%
Buy YES@ 97¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly14.3%
½ Kelly7.1%
Buy NO@ 4¢

-14.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 14.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this