Markets/Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:26 PM UTC

Closes May 25, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

23%YES

77%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

20% / 27%

Spread

7.40pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 23%99%

Buy YES@ 23¢

-1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 77¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.5%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 7.40 percentage points. The market closes on May 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500001

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