ForecastMind
Markets/Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
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Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$10

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

0% / 2%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+90.5pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1509651

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this