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Markets/Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
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Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$147

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

9% / 11%

Spread

2.40pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $147 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1509658

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

19% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -7.8pp

19% → 11%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

16% YES (-0.7pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+3.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this