Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Hurricanes vs. Senators
Closed April 5, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.7pp below current market price; market at 50% may be overpriced with macro signals showing USD/RUB +0.5% ↑, Oil -0.5% ↓, VIX -2.7% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.7M
Liquidity
$693K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Hurricanes vs. Senators" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.7M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Hurricanes vs. Senators." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1537972
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
54% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 6, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
28%
Apr 5, 2026
Biggest move: -27.5pp
28% → 0%
Apr 6, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this