Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
12% / 21%
Spread
9.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026?
March 2026
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 9.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1551572
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