Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
7% / 10%
Spread
2.40pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Trough probability
8% YES — lowest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: +5.8pp
14% → 20%
Mar 15, 2026
Peak probability
22% YES — highest in period
Mar 15, 2026
Current
12% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 17, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1552201
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Venue Divergence
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