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Will Danish People’s Party win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$968

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

13% / 27%

Spread

14.10pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the…

2026

Full event →
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
100%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
83%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
43%
the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele
28%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
26%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
16%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
16%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
9%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
7%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
2%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
2%
the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele
1%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
1%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
1%
Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the third most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Far
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the
0%
the second most seats in the Danish Folketing
0%

44 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢
Edge

+1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Danish People’s Party win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $968 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 14.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Danish People’s Party win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1569010

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