Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Capitals vs. Penguins
Closed April 11, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.4M
Liquidity
$27K
Bid / Ask
96% / 97%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
96%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Capitals vs. Penguins" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.4M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Capitals vs. Penguins." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598493
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5: 100%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5: 100%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5: 100%.
Capitals vs. Penguins
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
56% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: +19.0pp
60% → 79%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
79% YES (+19.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this