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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 22?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 22?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:46 AM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

32%YES

68%NO

Volume 24h

$77K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

64% / 66%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-15.6pp

confidence40%

methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

March

above $1,800 on March 22?

above $1,700 on March 22?

above $1,600 on March 22?

above $1,900 on March 22?

above $2,000 on March 22?

above $2,100 on March 22?

65%

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?

$2,600 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?

$2,800 in March?

above $2,200 on March 22?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?

$3,000 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?

$3,200 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?

$4,000 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

$3,800 in March?

$3,600 in March?

$3,400 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March?

above $2,400 on March 22?

$2,600 March 16-22?

$2,700 March 16-22?

$2,500 March 16-22?

greater than $2,500 on March 22?

less than $1,600 on March 22?

$2,800 March 16-22?

above $2,600 on March 22?

above $2,500 on March 22?

$2,900 March 16-22?

34 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-15.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

35% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 15, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

35%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -53.0pp

88% → 35%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

92% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

35% YES (-9.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 32%99%

Buy YES@ 32¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 68¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 22?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $77K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598703

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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