Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 04:31 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$60K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?

March

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-7.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

21% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Trough probability

11% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 19, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: +28.0pp

14% → 42%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

72% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

14% YES (-6.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 87¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1603559