Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:22 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

24%YES

76%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

21% / 22%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-21.1pp

confidence40%

methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 23?

March

Full event →

above $1,800 on March 23?

100%

above $1,900 on March 23?

99%

above $2,000 on March 23?

83%

above $2,100 on March 23?

24%

between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 23?

22%

above $2,200 on March 23?

between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 23?

above $2,300 on March 23?

above $2,800 on March 23?

above $2,500 on March 23?

above $2,400 on March 23?

above $2,700 on March 23?

above $2,600 on March 23?

13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

30% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +7.5pp

23% → 31%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

28% YES (+5.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 24%99%

Buy YES@ 24¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 76¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607591

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