Markets/Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Data as of Apr 4, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

$47K

Liquidity

$56K

Bid / Ask

20% / 21%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $47K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1609728

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. April 30: 21%, March 31: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~79%.