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Markets/Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
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Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Closes April 17, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$29K

Bid / Ask

6% / 7%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 17, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1632628

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

6% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this