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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 25?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 25?

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and…

March

Full event →
between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 25?
56%
between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 25?
23%
between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 25?
16%
between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 25?
3%
between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 25?
1%
between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 25?
0%
between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25?
0%
between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25?
0%

8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-31.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly31.0%
½ Kelly15.5%
Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 31.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 25?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640422

Correlated Markets

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↑ 0.93

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26?

↑ 0.88

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25?

↑ 0.86

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26?

↑ 0.83

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 26?

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

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Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

⊕

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.