Markets/Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 04:26 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

61%YES

40%NO

Volume 24h

$88K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

60% / 62%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

61%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+39.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

19% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +13.0pp

49% → 62%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

62% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

58% YES (-2.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 61%99%

Buy YES@ 61¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%

½ Kelly0.6%

Buy NO@ 40¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $88K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 61%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1651999