Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:46 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$118K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

22% / 23%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+16.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: +15.0pp

21% → 36%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

39% YES — highest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Current

26% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 23%99%

Buy YES@ 23¢

Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $118K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1652002