Markets/Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?

Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?

Market Price

15%YES

85%NO

FM Estimate

12%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

3.0pp

Vol 24h$13

Liquidity$18K

Bid / Ask14% / 16%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.7pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1653179