Markets/Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 06:55 AM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$110

Liquidity

$656

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Order Book (YES)

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Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

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EV per $ wagered

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EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $110 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656640

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