Markets/Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 01:34 PM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$109

Liquidity

$3K

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Order Book (YES)

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Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

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Buy NO@ 87¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $109 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656643

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