Markets/Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 02:43 PM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$74

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

5% / 8%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $74 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656657

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