Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5)
Closed March 21, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.1M
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
73% YES
Mar 20, 2026
Trough probability
49% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 20, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 21, 2026
Biggest move: +38.5pp
61% → 99%
Mar 21, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Mar 21, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5)" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on March 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1657245
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