Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Closes April 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
26% / 28%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
27%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Trump announces end of military operations against…
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Mar 20, 2026
Current
27% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1662802
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