Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
Closes March 25, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$38K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Biggest move: -8.2pp
12% → 4%
Mar 24, 2026
Current
1% YES (-1.1pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+25.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1672921
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