Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?
Closed April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.8M
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.8M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1678613
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
65% YES
Apr 4, 2026
Trough probability
20% YES — lowest in period
Apr 4, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
20%
Apr 4, 2026
Biggest move: +80.5pp
20% → 100%
Apr 4, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 4, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this