ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Bulls vs. Grizzlies
Share on X

Bulls vs. Grizzlies

Closed March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

65%YES
36%NO

Volume 24h

$781K

Liquidity

$110K

Bid / Ask

57% / 58%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-21.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

43%

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: -22.0pp

65% → 43%

Mar 29, 2026

Current

43% YES (-22.0pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 65%99%
Buy YES@ 65¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%
½ Kelly0.7%
Buy NO@ 36¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bulls vs. Grizzlies" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $781K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Bulls vs. Grizzlies." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1682612