Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?

Data as of Mar 28, 2026, 06:56 PM UTC

Closes March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

82%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

17% / 19%

Spread

1.70pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on…

March

Full event →

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?

18%

between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 29?

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 29?

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 29?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 29?

greater than $78,000 on March 29?

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-17.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Trough probability

17% YES — lowest in period

Mar 28, 2026

Biggest move: -9.8pp

33% → 23%

Mar 28, 2026

Current

17% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 82¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1683283

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