ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)
Share on X

Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)

Closed March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$147K

Liquidity

$163K

Bid / Ask

75% / 87%

Spread

12.00pp

Expert Signal

84%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +12.0pp

56% → 68%

Mar 24, 2026

Current

68% YES (+12.0pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $147K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 84%. The bid-ask spread is 12.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1687848