Markets/1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 12:54 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

54%YES

47%NO

Volume 24h

$142

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

53% / 55%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

54%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

Full event →

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)

54%

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

54%

Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)

51%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 54%99%

Buy YES@ 54¢

Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 47¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $142 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1698367

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