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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 24?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 24?

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

86%YES
14%NO

Volume 24h

$44K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

93% / 96%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

86%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Solana dip to $50 in March?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 24?
86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
39%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March?
32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 24?
28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 24?
10%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March?
6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
3%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 24?
2%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 24?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 24?
1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 24?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March?
0%

26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+48.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Trough probability

18% YES — lowest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: +31.4pp

69% → 100%

Mar 24, 2026

Current

100% YES (+31.4pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 86%99%
Buy YES@ 86¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%
½ Kelly1.7%
Buy NO@ 15¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 24?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1698810

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Venue Divergence

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