ForecastMind
Markets/Pistons vs. Thunder
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Pistons vs. Thunder

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$508K

Liquidity

$273K

Bid / Ask

15% / 16%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Pistons vs. Thunder

Full event →
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5
51%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5
48%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5
46%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5
44%
Pistons vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline
22%
Pistons vs. Thunder
16%

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

16% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 16%99%
Buy YES@ 16¢
Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pistons vs. Thunder" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $508K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Pistons vs. Thunder." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1704252

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.