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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 31?
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Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

16% / 20%

Spread

3.90pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 31?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 3.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705588

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,20: 23%, price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30: 0%, price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~77%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -8.5pp

14% → 6%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

11% YES (+6.2pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 23%99%
Buy YES@ 23¢
Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this