Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.5pp above current market price; market at 69% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.5% ↑, VIX +1.9% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6
Liquidity
$910
Bid / Ask
44% / 94%
Spread
50.00pp
Expert Signal
69%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 69%. The bid-ask spread is 50.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706358
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