Military action against Iran ends on April 6, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.8pp below current market price; market at 50% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$44K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 6, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Military action against Iran ends on April 6, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706396
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
0% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this