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Markets/Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

0% / 1%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709278

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another: 1%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another: 1%, next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~97%.

next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European
1%

next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?

1%
next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle Ea
1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.4pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this