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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$50K

Liquidity

$26K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717414

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-43.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +12.2pp

4% → 16%

Apr 1, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+7.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this