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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$366K

Liquidity

$74K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $366K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717488

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-62.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

63% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -20.1pp

25% → 4%

Apr 1, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this