ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
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Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$74K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

8%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718884

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5: 90%, Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Te: 73%, Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5: 73%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

8% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 8%99%
Buy YES@ 8¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this