ForecastMind
Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?
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Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$31K

Bid / Ask

0% / 0%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723665

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this