ForecastMind
Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?
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Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

22% / 23%

Spread

1.30pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723669

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

17% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 22%99%
Buy YES@ 22¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 78¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this