ForecastMind
Markets/Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?
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Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$602

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

6% / 6%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $602 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723671

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Peak probability

19% YES — highest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Current

15% YES (-3.9pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢
Edge

+4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this