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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 26?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 26?

Closes March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES
72%NO

Volume 24h

$141K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

24% / 29%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 26?
100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March?
39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29?
32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 26?
28%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?
18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29?
11%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March?
8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 26?
7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29?
3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March?
3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 26?
3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 26?
2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29?
1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March?
1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 26?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 23-29?
1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 26?
0%

36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

64%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +21.5pp

42% → 64%

Mar 26, 2026

Peak probability

64% YES — highest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Current

31% YES (-16.5pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 28%99%
Buy YES@ 28¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 72¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%
½ Kelly0.9%
Buy NO—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 26?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $141K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1724742

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