Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 10:02 PM UTC

Closes March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES

45%NO

Volume 24h

$33K

Liquidity

$72K

Bid / Ask

54% / 55%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

Full event →

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

55%

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

52%

Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

51%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Current

55% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 55%99%

Buy YES@ 55¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 45¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1725483

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