ForecastMind
Markets/NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
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NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Closes April 8, 2026

Polymarket Price

74%YES
26%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$475

Bid / Ask

60% / 100%

Spread

39.80pp

Expert Signal

74%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals" at 74% YES / 26% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 74%. The bid-ask spread is 39.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals." Prediction market snapshot: YES 74%, NO 26%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1729417

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-39.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

99% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: -32.5pp

100% → 67%

Apr 1, 2026

Current

60% YES (-0.6pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 74%99%
Buy YES@ 74¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 26¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this