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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 2?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 2?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-55.6pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 2?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731413

Outcome Markets11 markets

This event has 11 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2?: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 2?: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2?: 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: -5.5pp

24% → 18%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

24% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

19% YES (+3.5pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this