ForecastMind
Markets/Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Share on X

Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Closes April 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

38%YES
63%NO

Volume 24h

$650

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

30% / 45%

Spread

15.00pp

Expert Signal

45%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 38%99%
Buy YES@ 38¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 63¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $650 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 15.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1737537