Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Warriors (-13.5)
Closed March 28, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$242K
Liquidity
$6K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Warriors (-12.5)
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
46% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
63%
Mar 28, 2026
Biggest move: -58.5pp
63% → 4%
Mar 28, 2026
Peak probability
63% YES — highest in period
Mar 28, 2026
Current
0% YES (-4.0pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Warriors (-13.5)" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $242K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Spread: Warriors (-13.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1738623
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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