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Markets/Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?
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Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?

Closes April 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES
80%NO

Volume 24h

$22

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

19% / 22%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1742066

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 21%99%
Buy YES@ 21¢
Edge

+2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 80¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this