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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

38%YES
62%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

38% / 40%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1743689

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-16.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

54% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

38%

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: -18.0pp

56% → 38%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

38% YES (-18.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 38%99%
Buy YES@ 38¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 62¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this